Setlist Predictions

What the model thinks Phish plays at the next show.

Based on shows through 2026-07-17, predicting 2026-07-18.

Lower confidence this time. The last 9 shows were unusually non-repeating (127 of 147 songs unique), which flattens the recency signals the model relies on. Treat the next show or two as a rougher read — the order still means more than the exact numbers.

Most Likely Songs

Ranked by the model's probability of appearing anywhere in the setlist.

# Song Gap Likelihood
1 Possum 7 32.1%
2 Chalk Dust Torture 8 31.9%
3 First Tube 7 30.6%
4 The Moma Dance 7 29.5%
5 Weekapaug Groove 8 29.3%
6 Mike's Song 8 29.3%
7 Slave to the Traffic Light 8 28.0%
8 Twist 7 26.2%
9 Life Saving Gun 8 26.1%
10 Run Like an Antelope 8 26.0%
11 Free 8 25.8%
12 Blaze On 6 25.2%
13 Wolfman's Brother 6 25.1%
14 Ya Mar 13 24.3%
15 What's Going Through Your Mind 6 23.8%

Position Shortlists

Set openers, closers, and the encore are hard to pin down — these probabilities are low and diffuse, so read the order as the signal, not the percentages.

Set 1 Opener

  1. First Tube (7) 6.0% plays 31%
  2. Free (8) 4.8% plays 26%
  3. Sigma Oasis (7) 3.7% plays 21%
  4. Chalk Dust Torture (8) 3.6% plays 32%
  5. The Moma Dance (7) 3.3% plays 29%

Set 1 Closer

  1. Run Like an Antelope (8) 9.6% plays 26%
  2. Life Saving Gun (8) 5.1% plays 26%
  3. Possum (7) 4.6% plays 32%
  4. Most Events Aren't Planned (5) 3.8% plays 6%
  5. Cavern (7) 3.4% plays 14%

Set 2 Opener

  1. Oblivion (6) 10.1% plays 23%
  2. Mike's Song (8) 7.2% plays 29%
  3. Chalk Dust Torture (8) 4.9% plays 32%
  4. Sigma Oasis (7) 4.3% plays 21%
  5. Everything's Right (5) 3.5% plays 17%

Set 2 Closer

  1. Slave to the Traffic Light (8) 8.4% plays 28%
  2. First Tube (7) 8.4% plays 31%
  3. Possum (7) 4.8% plays 32%
  4. You Enjoy Myself (6) 4.8% plays 24%
  5. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (8) 4.7% plays 23%

Encore

  1. First Tube (7) 20.6% plays 31%
  2. Slave to the Traffic Light (8) 19.7% plays 28%
  3. Tweezer Reprise (5) 19.1% plays 18%
  4. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (8) 13.7% plays 23%
  5. Run Like an Antelope (8) 9.4% plays 26%

Suggested Board

The model's picks arranged for the setlist game: highest-confidence songs in the highest-point positions, specials assigned to each song's strongest slot. The stance tunes variance, not prediction — chase bundles correlated pairs, protect splits them and spreads across rotation cohorts.

chase neutral protect 10 picks 15 picks

Numbered picks ~16.5 expected pts

  1. 10 Possum (7) 32.1%
  2. 9 Chalk Dust Torture (8) 31.9%
  3. 8 First Tube (7) 30.6%
  4. 7 The Moma Dance (7) 29.5%
  5. 6 Weekapaug Groove (8) 29.3%
  6. 5 Mike's Song (8) 29.3%
  7. 4 Slave to the Traffic Light (8) 28.0%
  8. 3 Twist (7) 26.2%
  9. 2 Blaze On (6) cohort diversification 25.2%
  10. 1 Wolfman's Brother (6) cohort diversification 25.1%

Specials