Setlist Predictions

What the model thinks Phish plays at the next show.

Based on shows through 2026-10-12, predicting 2026-12-30.

Most Likely Songs

Ranked by the model's probability of appearing anywhere in the setlist.

# Song Gap Likelihood
1 Ghost 3 29.3%
2 Sand 2 27.9%
3 Harry Hood 3 25.7%
4 Carini 3 24.1%
5 Everything's Right 2 23.4%
6 Back on the Train 7 23.3%
7 Free 2 23.2%
8 No Men In No Man's Land 1 22.6%
9 Light 5 22.5%
10 Blaze On 1 22.2%
11 Possum 2 21.3%
12 Sigma Oasis 6 20.3%
13 A Wave of Hope 8 20.1%
14 The Moma Dance 6 19.9%
15 Fuego 2 19.6%

Position Shortlists

Set openers, closers, and the encore are hard to pin down — these probabilities are low and diffuse, so read the order as the signal, not the percentages.

Set 1 Opener

  1. Carini (3) 4.4% plays 24%
  2. Sand (2) 3.3% plays 28%
  3. Buried Alive (5) 3.2% plays 6%
  4. Ghost (3) 2.9% plays 29%
  5. My Friend, My Friend (1) 2.6% plays 19%

Set 1 Closer

  1. Ghost (3) 5.5% plays 29%
  2. Most Events Aren't Planned (4) 4.9% plays 8%
  3. Golgi Apparatus (17) 4.2% plays 17%
  4. Cavern (16) 4.0% plays 17%
  5. Walls of the Cave (24) 3.9% plays 12%

Set 2 Opener

  1. Oblivion (8) 5.1% plays 15%
  2. What's Going Through Your Mind (7) 4.6% plays 19%
  3. Everything's Right (2) 4.0% plays 23%
  4. Carini (3) 3.7% plays 24%
  5. No Men In No Man's Land (1) 3.5% plays 23%

Set 2 Closer

  1. Harry Hood (3) 6.3% plays 26%
  2. Everything's Right (2) 4.9% plays 23%
  3. Character Zero (1) 4.8% plays 18%
  4. Carini (3) 4.4% plays 24%
  5. Ghost (3) 4.2% plays 29%

Encore

  1. First Tube (5) 20.8% plays 18%
  2. Tweezer Reprise (3) 15.9% plays 18%
  3. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (8) 13.9% plays 17%
  4. Harry Hood (3) 10.4% plays 26%
  5. Waste (7) 8.3% plays 12%

Suggested Board

The model's picks arranged for the setlist game: highest-confidence songs in the highest-point positions, specials assigned to each song's strongest slot. The stance tunes variance, not prediction — chase bundles correlated pairs, protect splits them and spreads across rotation cohorts.

chase neutral protect 10 picks 15 picks

Numbered picks ~14.0 expected pts

  1. 10 Ghost (3) 29.3%
  2. 9 Sand (2) 27.9%
  3. 8 Harry Hood (3) 25.7%
  4. 7 Carini (3) 24.1%
  5. 6 Everything's Right (2) 23.4%
  6. 5 Back on the Train (7) 23.3%
  7. 4 Free (2) 23.2%
  8. 3 No Men In No Man's Land (1) 22.6%
  9. 2 Light (5) 22.5%
  10. 1 Blaze On (1) 22.2%

Specials