Setlist Predictions

What the model thinks Phish plays at the next show.

Based on shows through 2026-08-01, predicting 2026-09-04.

Most Likely Songs

Ranked by the model's probability of appearing anywhere in the setlist.

# Song Gap Likelihood
1 Sand 1 23.8%
2 First Tube 9 23.6%
3 Harry Hood 2 23.4%
4 Blaze On 8 22.5%
5 Life Saving Gun 10 22.5%
6 Free 2 21.4%
7 Oblivion 9 21.1%
8 Also Sprach Zarathustra 6 20.5%
9 The Moma Dance 9 20.5%
10 A Wave of Hope 2 20.4%
11 What's Going Through Your Mind 2 20.2%
12 Everything's Right 2 19.8%
13 46 Days 14 19.4%
14 Back on the Train 2 19.1%
15 Reba 7 18.6%

Position Shortlists

Set openers, closers, and the encore are hard to pin down — these probabilities are low and diffuse, so read the order as the signal, not the percentages.

Set 1 Opener

  1. AC/DC Bag (7) 4.5% plays 13%
  2. Blaze On (8) 3.9% plays 22%
  3. Free (2) 3.7% plays 21%
  4. Buried Alive (11) 3.5% plays 9%
  5. 46 Days (14) 3.4% plays 19%

Set 1 Closer

  1. Most Events Aren't Planned (15) 5.2% plays 10%
  2. Life Saving Gun (10) 4.6% plays 22%
  3. Sand (1) 3.9% plays 24%
  4. Runaway Jim (7) 3.8% plays 15%
  5. Walls of the Cave (13) 3.5% plays 9%

Set 2 Opener

  1. Oblivion (9) 6.9% plays 21%
  2. What's Going Through Your Mind (2) 4.1% plays 20%
  3. A Wave of Hope (2) 4.0% plays 20%
  4. Everything's Right (2) 3.8% plays 20%
  5. Carini (2) 3.5% plays 18%

Set 2 Closer

  1. Free (2) 6.0% plays 21%
  2. First Tube (9) 5.8% plays 24%
  3. Harry Hood (2) 5.5% plays 23%
  4. Character Zero (1) 4.7% plays 14%
  5. Ghost (1) 4.2% plays 18%

Encore

  1. First Tube (9) 12.0% plays 24%
  2. Slave to the Traffic Light (6) 10.6% plays 15%
  3. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (2) 8.6% plays 17%
  4. Tweezer Reprise (1) 6.5% plays 10%
  5. A Life Beyond The Dream (2) 6.5% plays 15%

Suggested Board

The model's picks arranged for the setlist game: highest-confidence songs in the highest-point positions, specials assigned to each song's strongest slot. The stance tunes variance, not prediction — chase bundles correlated pairs, protect splits them and spreads across rotation cohorts.

chase neutral protect 10 picks 15 picks

Numbered picks ~26.3 expected pts

  1. 15 Sand (1) 23.8%
  2. 14 First Tube (9) 23.6%
  3. 13 Harry Hood (2) 23.4%
  4. 12 Blaze On (8) 22.5%
  5. 11 Life Saving Gun (10) 22.5%
  6. 10 Free (2) 21.4%
  7. 9 Oblivion (9) 21.1%
  8. 8 Also Sprach Zarathustra (6) 20.5%
  9. 7 The Moma Dance (9) 20.5%
  10. 6 A Wave of Hope (2) 20.4%
  11. 5 What's Going Through Your Mind (2) 20.2%
  12. 4 46 Days (14) reload 19.4%
  13. 3 Reba (7) 18.6%
  14. 2 Wolfman's Brother (5) cohort diversification 18.1%
  15. 1 Backwards Down the Number Line (3) cohort diversification 18.1%

Specials