Setlist Predictions

What the model thinks Phish plays at the next show.

Based on shows through 2026-07-18, predicting 2026-07-19.

Lower confidence this time. The last 9 shows were unusually non-repeating (130 of 146 songs unique), which flattens the recency signals the model relies on. Treat the next show or two as a rougher read — the order still means more than the exact numbers.

Most Likely Songs

Ranked by the model's probability of appearing anywhere in the setlist.

# Song Gap Likelihood
1 Chalk Dust Torture 9 34.3%
2 Weekapaug Groove 9 30.5%
3 Mike's Song 9 30.5%
4 The Moma Dance 8 30.0%
5 First Tube 8 29.8%
6 Blaze On 7 29.7%
7 Possum 8 29.5%
8 Wolfman's Brother 7 27.4%
9 Slave to the Traffic Light 9 26.7%
10 Everything's Right 6 23.6%
11 Carini 6 23.5%
12 Tweezer 6 23.3%
13 Bouncing Around the Room 7 22.8%
14 Ya Mar 14 22.8%
15 Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. 9 22.2%

Position Shortlists

Set openers, closers, and the encore are hard to pin down — these probabilities are low and diffuse, so read the order as the signal, not the percentages.

Set 1 Opener

  1. First Tube (8) 5.6% plays 30%
  2. Blaze On (7) 5.3% plays 30%
  3. Carini (6) 4.0% plays 23%
  4. The Moma Dance (8) 3.5% plays 30%
  5. Chalk Dust Torture (9) 3.4% plays 34%

Set 1 Closer

  1. Most Events Aren't Planned (6) 4.4% plays 8%
  2. Cavern (8) 3.5% plays 18%
  3. Bathtub Gin (5) 3.5% plays 21%
  4. Possum (8) 3.3% plays 30%
  5. Wolfman's Brother (7) 2.9% plays 27%

Set 2 Opener

  1. Oblivion (7) 11.9% plays 21%
  2. Mike's Song (9) 6.4% plays 30%
  3. Everything's Right (6) 5.4% plays 24%
  4. Sigma Oasis (8) 4.8% plays 19%
  5. Carini (6) 3.9% plays 23%

Set 2 Closer

  1. First Tube (8) 9.9% plays 30%
  2. Chalk Dust Torture (9) 9.2% plays 34%
  3. Slave to the Traffic Light (9) 7.2% plays 27%
  4. Possum (8) 7.1% plays 30%
  5. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (9) 4.6% plays 22%

Encore

  1. Tweezer Reprise (6) 26.8% plays 22%
  2. Slave to the Traffic Light (9) 17.9% plays 27%
  3. First Tube (8) 14.7% plays 30%
  4. Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (9) 13.1% plays 22%
  5. A Life Beyond The Dream (6) 11.0% plays 17%

Suggested Board

The model's picks arranged for the setlist game: highest-confidence songs in the highest-point positions, specials assigned to each song's strongest slot. The stance tunes variance, not prediction — chase bundles correlated pairs, protect splits them and spreads across rotation cohorts.

chase neutral protect 10 picks 15 picks

Numbered picks ~34.8 expected pts

  1. 15 Chalk Dust Torture (9) 34.3%
  2. 14 Weekapaug Groove (9) 30.5%
  3. 13 Mike's Song (9) 30.5%
  4. 12 The Moma Dance (8) 30.0%
  5. 11 First Tube (8) 29.8%
  6. 10 Blaze On (7) 29.7%
  7. 9 Possum (8) 29.5%
  8. 8 Wolfman's Brother (7) 27.4%
  9. 7 Slave to the Traffic Light (9) 26.7%
  10. 6 Everything's Right (6) 23.6%
  11. 5 Carini (6) 23.5%
  12. 4 Tweezer (6) 23.3%
  13. 3 Bouncing Around the Room (7) 22.8%
  14. 2 Ya Mar (14) reload 22.8%
  15. 1 Oblivion (7) cohort diversification 21.2%

Specials